With two years until Nigeria’s next presidential election, a wave of high-profile defections from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) is triggering fierce debate across the political landscape.
The defections come amid warnings that the emerging coalition led by former PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar may struggle to counter President Bola Tinubu’s influence. Analysts point to complex power dynamics, especially within the North, and rising fears over what some describe as an escalating “Fulani war” that has reached Nigeria from the Sahel.
Atiku, Labour Party’s Peter Obi, ex-Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, and Babachir Lawal recently announced a political coalition under the Social Democratic Party (SDP). But since the announcement, few notable figures have publicly joined, raising doubts about the alliance’s strength.
The PDP recently suffered significant losses in the South-South as Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa—Atiku’s 2023 running mate—defected to the APC during a stakeholders’ meeting in Asaba. Their exit gives the APC dominance in the region, now controlling Delta, Edo, and Cross River, while the governors of Rivers and Akwa Ibom have expressed alignment with Tinubu. Only Bayelsa remains under PDP leadership.
In the North, discussions around regional loyalty ahead of 2027 are heating up. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, former spokesman of the Northern Elders Forum, suggested the North will decide its direction within six months, noting that the experience under former President Buhari has made the region more politically cautious.
Former Kaduna governor El-Rufai has been actively rallying northern stakeholders, recently visiting Emir Muhammadu Sanusi and NNPP leader Rabiu Kwankwaso.
Coalition’s Weak Prospects and Ethnic Tensions
Katchi Ononuju, Director General of the Heritage Centre, believes the opposition coalition stands little chance against Tinubu’s APC. He says governors are defecting not out of policy support, but due to growing fears over a Sahel-originated Fulani insurgency spreading into Nigeria.
“This Fulani war has birthed itself in Nigeria,” Ononuju told Daily Post. “It’s a fight over land and power, and the Tinubu administration lacks a cohesive strategy to deal with it.”
He accused Fulani politicians of rejecting inclusiveness, even after Buhari’s eight-year tenure. “The PDP collapsed because it refused to respect zoning,” he said, adding that Nigerians may prefer to back Tinubu over another Fulani presidency.
He continued: “What we see now is southern governors joining APC not because of love for the party, but to resist Fulani hegemony. The South would rather Tinubu rule forever than have another Fulani leader.”
According to Ononuju, the crisis stems from what he calls “settler colonialism”—an effort by Fulani elites to dominate Nigeria politically and economically.
Democratic Norms or Political Realignment?
Osita Okechukwu, founding APC member and former VON DG, dismissed concerns about defections, calling them part of democratic evolution.
“There are defections in and out of APC. It’s not strange,” he said. “This is the result of PDP breaching its zoning convention. Once they ignored power rotation, the crisis was inevitable.”
Okechukwu praised Tinubu’s efforts to empower local governments and create regional development commissions. “What the President has done is shift power to local communities. Financial autonomy for councils is a major milestone,” he stated.
He emphasized that while defections may not always translate to electoral strength, the APC’s policies and reforms make it more attractive.
“This isn’t about who joins or leaves a party—it’s about aligning with people’s needs. If APC continues this trajectory, more will come.”
